The hottest economic recovery is lower than expect
2022-10-23- Detail
The degree of economic recovery was lower than expected, and the attractiveness of crude oil investment was dimmed
after a short rebound on the 13th and temporarily returning to the $70 per barrel level, the crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell sharply in the past two trading days on the 14th and 17th. As of the end of trading on the 17th, the futures price of light and low sulfur crude oil delivered in September on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $66.75 a barrel, the lowest level since July 29
analysts pointed out that in addition to the direct effect of the expected contraction in demand, the economic recovery process of the United States and Japan, as major oil consumers, was slower than expected, which also made the investment attraction of crude oil futures fade
investors reflect on "too optimistic"
Rick Muller, director of energy Securities Analysis Corporation of the United States, believes that there are still major problems in the recovery process of the global economy, so investors reflect on their previous investment behavior "too optimistic" and make corresponding adjustments
the strengthening of the US dollar combined with idle production capacity
against the backdrop of renewed doubts about the prospects for economic recovery, investors re favor the US dollar with strong security. In the trading on the 14th and 17th, the US dollar index rose significantly, breaking through and stabilizing at the 79 level
in addition, the idle production of the group of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aluminum alloy thermal insulation profile testing project may also have a depressing effect on international oil prices. Rick Muller pointed out that the number of idle capacity has increased significantly compared with last year, which just demonstrates the effective ability of OPEC in managing the crude oil market. Previously, at the three meetings in the fourth quarter of last year, the quota of measurement data that can be provided to customers by output reached among OPEC member states is to reduce production by 4.2 million barrels per day and control daily production to 24.845 million barrels to stabilize crude oil prices
American media pointed out that OPEC hopes to see oil prices fluctuate between $65 and $80, which is not only conducive to curbing consumers and investors from turning to other alternative energy sources, but also will not damage the global economic recovery. In fact, as early as May 23 this year, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Ali nayami expressed a similar attitude in Rome. He pointed out that the crude oil price of about $75 per barrel is beneficial to the global economy, and OPEC's goal is to "maintain the crude oil price between $70 and $80 per barrel"
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