The hottest economist Research International 2008

Economist Research International: the uncertain future of the financial market in 2008

looking back on the survey results of the international part of the economist survey in early 2007, I can't help feeling that the market changes so fast

at the beginning of 2007, everything in the market was still so perfect. With the rise of major indexes, the stock market began to officially come out of the shadow of the high-tech stock foam. The global economy is growing at a rate of nearly 5%, and inflation is well controlled relative to high raw material prices. The two carriages of global economic growth: the United States and China performed well, and the economies of Japan and Europe also began to get on track. Financial enterprises are paying large bonuses to employees, who are often the most direct beneficiaries of the economic boom. Although there were some discordant notes in the U.S. real estate market at that time, it still seemed to be "no problem", and we prefer to take the rising raw material prices and inflation risks as evidence of good economic conditions

but one year later, we saw another scene. The credit crunch crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage problem swept the world, and investors were worried. The S & P 500 index fell by 15% from its peak. If it fell by another 5%, it would be a bear market in theory. Financial institutions began to be busy with two things: accruing losses and firing the CEO. But this is not all. People do not know how many unknown fields will be affected. The market began to enter a year full of uncertainty, and this uncertainty is the biggest enemy of the market

the comments of pessimistic economists began to spread. They said that American consumption would be affected and the depression was in sight, which would cause great harm to the global economy, because compared with real estate, the American consumer market was much "globalized". Now, "do you think the U.S. economy will fall into recession this year?" It has become the question that people are most eager to ask

however, according to our survey results, although not as optimistic as last year, the global economic performance may still grow steadily this year. There are also some conclusions worth investors' special attention: including the possible correction of commodity prices; Many customers in the US dollar market are worried that the quality of the machine may rebound; Yen carrying trading may no longer prevail, while Asian (except Japan) stock markets may be the most popular

1 the global economy will continue to grow steadily

even facing so many problems, economists still believe that the global economy will continue to grow at a rate of more than 4% this year. In the survey, 78.3% of economists believe that the global GDP growth rate will fall within the range of 4% to 5%. Although it is not as good as last year, it is still a good number. Of course, 21.7% of economists expect to be less than 4%

this means that economists believe that strong economic growth in other regions will offset the impact of the United States, and global economic growth will further tilt towards emerging markets

in the past few years, global excess liquidity has been a hot topic, but this survey shows that this situation may change. 52.2% of respondents believe that this global liquidity overflow will end this year, which is a key signal for the market

2 the U.S. economy is in a low tide

in the eyes of some economists, the United States will always be a place for foam. For example, the stock market foam in the 1920s, the Internet foam at the end of the last century and the bursting real estate foam. The current American economy is also unsustainable, because American consumption depends on the appreciation of assets, and consumption is the most important driving force of economic growth

in 2008, the discussion of this issue becomes more important. This is not only that the U.S. economy accounts for a quarter of the global contribution to accelerating the transformation of old and new drivers and building new industries in Shandong, but also the most important market for Asian countries (including Japan), which is regarded as the most stable engine of global economic growth

we did not ask whether the U.S. economy would fall into depression (Xiao defined its indication modulation zero or the starting position bar as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth), because the extremely low growth rate for four consecutive quarters is not much better than the sharp rebound after the depression. We want to know whether the US economy will rebound this year, and the answer given by 65.2% of respondents is: No

irakalish, head of global economy and consumer industry of Deloitte research, believes that the U.S. economic growth will slow down significantly in 2008, and there is a great possibility of falling into recession. He was worried that the risk of inflation might make the Federal Reserve hesitate to sharply reduce interest rates, which would have a negative impact on the U.S. economic recovery

in our survey, most economists estimate that the economic growth rate of the United States this year is between 1.5% and 2.2%, which means that the possibility of the economy falling into a deep depression is also very small, and the real "panic" may not appear

3 the U.S. real estate market has not yet bottomed out

real estate is undoubtedly the most concerned market in the United States at present. Investors not only want to know whether there has been a turnaround in the market, but also want to know how much impact the downturn of the real estate market will have on the overall economy

in the past, if a homeowner was in financial crisis, the financial institution that originally provided credit to them would be in trouble. According to Deloitte data, in 1980, the U.S. mortgage asset securitization rate was only 10%, while in 2006, the figure reached 56%. Those subprime loans were split, integrated and mixed with other high-quality assets, and finally these high-risk bonds "disappeared"

"disappearance" is only temporary. If the real estate falls for a longer time, the more serious the problem will be exposed, the higher the probability of the U.S. economy falling into depression, and the greater the impact on the world. More problems may jump out of an unexpected place, either in Europe or on the balance sheet of a Japanese bank

however, only 8.7% of the respondents believe that the U.S. real estate market has bottomed out, which means that the recession in the market is likely to continue, but 26.1% of the respondents believe that a turnaround will occur this year

where the U.S. economy will go depends largely on consumers' response to the decline in house prices. This reaction will determine whether the current problems in real estate will affect consumption and even the overall economy, and also have an important impact on the trend of the global economy. The real estate market in the United States is not globalized, while American consumption is globalized

26.1% of the respondents believed that even if the real estate market continued to decline this year, it would not affect other industries. The most pessimists accounted for 39.1%. They believed that the real estate market would not turn for the better in the short term, and other industries would also be affected

another focus of the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve, and the question is where the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. According to our answers, the market has great differences on this issue. 8.7% of the respondents believe that it will be less than 2.5%, while one respondent believes that the interest rate cut is over. There may be unique reasons for this

"now the Federal Reserve does not decide the interest rate, they give up. Now it is the market that decides the interest rate, and it is a risky behavior to guess the market." Philipwhite, the founder and chief analyst of ite Co, said. White said that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to 3.75%, which means there is still room for 50 basis points. A recent report released by the Federal Reserve should attract investors' attention. In the report, the Federal Reserve said that the interest rate level that can ensure economic growth and will not lead to runaway inflation is much lower than originally thought

4 the economy of the euro zone will still grow but will not accelerate

47.8% of the respondents believe that the economic growth in Europe will be between 1.5% and 2%, and 52.2% of the respondents believe that the economic growth rate will reach 2% to 3%, which is not exciting on the whole

the problem of the eurozone economy lies not only in the overall growth rate, but also in the imbalance of growth. Germany's economic growth has been strong in recent years, but France and Italy are still struggling. This imbalance will naturally make countries with backward economic growth complain about the unified monetary policy of the euro. In addition, if the economic growth in the eurozone is weak, the European Central Bank has much less room to cut interest rates than the Federal Reserve, because they have their own inflation targets

5 the spread of the credit crisis and the collapse of the U.S. economy are the biggest risks

respondents regard the spread of the credit crisis and the collapse of the U

this result has a lot to do with the respondents' views on the credit crisis. 21.7% of the respondents believed that the credit crisis would affect the world and cause harm to the global economy, while only 8.7% of the respondents believed that the most difficult period had passed. Another 69.6% of the respondents believed that although the damage caused by the credit crisis continued, the number of affected groups would be limited and the impact on the global economy would not be too great. However, once the credit crisis shows signs of getting out of control, these centrists will fall into pessimism