The hottest economic indicators show signs of decl

2022-10-12
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Economic indicators show signs of decline and maintain growth again

economic indicators show signs of decline and maintain growth again

20 the achievements of Minnesota's team at Cornell University may change the above problems. China Construction machinery information

Guide: Wang guobing, macroeconomic analyst at Northeast Securities, pointed out that from the data, the pressure on the economic system to destock continues to increase. He believes that the PMI finished goods inventory index in June exceeded 50% for the first time since the crisis, reaching 51.3%, and the index of 10 industries such as steel exceeded 50%, indicating that nearly half of the economic system is in line

Wang guobing, macroeconomic analyst of Northeast Securities, pointed out that from the data point of view, the pressure of destocking in the economic system continues to increase. He believes that the PMI finished goods inventory index in June exceeded 50% for the first time since the crisis, reaching 51.3%, and the index of 10 industries such as steel exceeded 50%, indicating that nearly half of the industries in the economic system have a certain degree of "unsalable". The pressure of de stocking has increased again. With the increase of inventory, the slowdown of enterprise production will be the response measure, the growth rate of industrial added value will further decline, and the earnings of enterprises will also be affected to a certain extent. The European debt crisis will delay the global economic recovery, and the consumer confidence in Europe and the United States will decline, indicating that the growth of external demand in the later period is limited

According to the analysis of the report of Guojin Securities Research Institute, the inventory index of finished products has risen rapidly to a record high, which means that the output gap has reappeared, and the production and operation of enterprises in the future will face greater pressure

undoubtedly, China's economy will enter a round of inventory digestion adjustment again

internationally, China's leading economic index in April released by the OECD fell 0.4 points to 101.6, indicating that economic growth will slow down. The World Federation of large enterprises also significantly revised down China's leading economic index in April from the previously announced growth of 1.7% to 0.3%

macro trend

economic growth may fall sharply in the second half of the year

it has become a consensus that economic growth will fall back, but how deep will the "bottom" be

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that PMI in major countries almost all peaked in April and began to fall back since May. Signs of domestic economic decline have also emerged. It is estimated that the growth rate will be good in the second quarter and low in the fourth quarter. 4. In May, the industrial added value has been lower than the market expectation for two consecutive months. This clearly shows that since the beginning of the year, investment control policies such as the clean-up of local financing platforms and the new real estate deal have slowed economic growth

the preliminary accounting data of economic growth in 2009 shows that in the growth rate of 8.7%, 8 percentage points are driven by investment, and the driving force of consumption is only 4.6 percentage points. Considering the steady change characteristics of consumption and the fact that net exports may only become non drag this year, the economic slowdown is natural after investment is quickly curbed

Guojin Securities Research Institute also believes that China's economy is currently in a declining stage in a short cycle, and the economic growth in the second half of the year may show a relatively significant downward trend. In July, most economic growth indicators should decline month on month. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is about 9.2 and 8.8 respectively. Under the assumption that the average monthly PPI from July to December is 5%, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits may decline to about 3.5% in the second half of the year

the latest trend

a new round of stimulus policies may begin

Political Commissar Lu said that domestic concerns about the economic slowdown in the second half of the year have suddenly deepened in the near future. In the face of the current economic downturn, the "pendulum" of macro policies in the future will once again move more to the "growth protection" side, and the policy operation is faced with loose fine-tuning

what is striking is that the central government recently deployed the in-depth implementation of the western development strategy, saying that it plans to start 23 new key projects in the western development this year, with a total investment of 682.2 billion yuan

in this regard, Political Commissar Lu said that although it is still unclear how much of the 682.2 billion yuan will be invested in place this year, it marks the beginning of a new round of stimulus policies in China, which will not make the bottom of China's economic growth decline too deep. Whether this year or next year, the possibility of a single quarter growth rate falling below 8% is very low

Guojin Securities Research Institute analyzed that the construction cycle of investment projects based on new construction is about 2-3 years, and it is expected that up to 300billion yuan will be completed in 2010, with limited overall impact on investment and economy. However, the western development policy reflects the management's intention to maintain economic growth as much as possible, and more reflects the strategic steps for regional economic revitalization and industrial structure transfer. This positive policy attitude can boost our confidence in the economy and the market to a certain extent. Due to the decline of economic data, the expectation of policy relaxation will rise. However, as the time for policy relaxation is far from ripe, we can't have too much expectation on the intensity of relaxation

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