Accurate earthquake prediction of the hottest time

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At 3:50 on August 14, Tonghai County, Yuxi City, Yunnan Province (24.19 degrees north latitude, 102.71 degrees east longitude) suffered a magnitude 5.0 earthquake with a focal depth of 6 kilometers. This is a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred again in the earthquake area after the magnitude 5.0 earthquake in Tonghai at 1:44 on August 13, 2018. Tonghai County, the nearest county to the epicenter of the earthquake, is about 9 kilometers away, and several surrounding districts and counties were strongly felt

according to the data provided by the China Seismological Bureau, as of 9:00 on August 14, 15 earthquakes of magnitude 2.0 or above had occurred in the earthquake area, including 10 earthquakes of magnitude 2.0 to 2.9, 3 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 to 3.9, and 2 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 to 5.9

with the earthquake, there are rumors that spread very fast. On the 13th, within a very short time after the earthquake, a "warning" appeared on the Internet - "a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred in some areas of Tonghai, and it is expected that there will be a stronger earthquake from 4 a.m. to 6 a.m.". The news spread widely in the local area, and many people believed it

on August 14, the circle of friends began to spread "there may be an earthquake of magnitude 6 or 7 from 12 noon to 3 p.m.", "there is also a major earthquake behind which the main business income will increase steadily. Using new wall insulation materials as a pilot project will significantly increase the cost of buildings". After verification, it was all rumors

Zhou Guangquan, spokesman of Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau, said that as for the rumors circulating on the Internet, please don't listen to them and spread them

Jin Mingpei, deputy director of the monitoring center of Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau, said that according to statistics, Yunnan has experienced an average of 3.3 earthquakes of magnitude 5 every year in the past 100 years. Although scientists try to find the omen before the earthquake by studying the small earthquake activity, the change of underground fluid, the change of geomagnetic field, etc., at present, earthquake prediction is still a scientific problem all over the world, and no organization in the world can accurately predict earthquakes

experts explained that internationally, earthquake prediction and prediction is still in the exploratory stage, and scientific research has not yet fully mastered the law of earthquake preparation and development. It is possible to realize medium and long-term prediction and prediction on a large time scale and through conditioning, but the success rate of short-term and imminent prediction is still very low. Therefore, whether the prediction content exceeds the actual level of current earthquake prediction is an important criterion for identifying rumors. In this regard, Jin Mingpei stressed that the so-called forecasts that are accurate to a certain point and specific to a certain place are rumors

for a widely spread local news: on August 11, the sudden rainstorm in Tonghai heralded the occurrence of the earthquake. Jin Mingpei made it clear that the occurrence of extreme weather is related to seasonality, but not necessarily related to earthquakes. Rainfall also occurred in other parts of Yunnan in the same period, but there was no earthquake. He stressed that according to the current research results, no macro anomaly is necessarily related to earthquakes

Li Fei, director of the earthquake disaster prevention division of the Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau, also said that one hour after the earthquake, the Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau had organized a 33 person on-site working group to the disaster site, and carried relevant professional instruments to carry out earthquake monitoring, disaster loss assessment and popular science publicity. Forecasters also held a meeting at the first time to study and judge the earthquake situation. He stressed that according to experts' research and judgment on aftershocks, the possibility of a larger earthquake occurring again is relatively small. Please don't listen to rumors to avoid panic

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